Barchart’s U.S. Cotton Yield Forecast Model provides a daily, ground-up view of yield expectations and production risk across 12 of the largest cotton-producing states. Built at the county level and aggregated into state-level forecasts, the model combines proprietary machine learning with satellite-derived measures of soil moisture, surface temperature, and vegetative growth, supported by weather and drought observations. Targets USDA Risk Management Agency (RMA) yields and emphasizes downside yield deviations. The dataset covers AL, AR, GA, KS, LA, MO, MS, NC, OK, SC, TN, TX from 2021 onward